Housing Starts (Change of construction commenced)
Bureau of Census, about half of the month, in the chair. 8:30 EST, covers previous month data
This economic indicator tracks the number of new houses and buildings were built during the month. For the purpose of the survey
each house and each house shall be treated as the same entity. This indicator does not affect a large extent on the market, but
the U.S. Census reported that the housing industry represents over 25% of the investment in dollars and 5% of the total economy.
Commencement of construction are considered a leading indicator, meaning a good indication of trends in the economy. Declining
housing starts show a slowing economy, while growth in construction activity can pull the entire economy of the bad times.
GDP Price Deflator (GDP Deflator price)
BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis); last day of the quarter, in the chair. 8:30 EST, covers previous quarter data
The GDP deflator shows the volume changes in the base year’s GDP, which is based on changes in price levels. Also called “GDP
implicit price deflator.”Because it is not based on a fixed basket of goods and services, the GDP deflator has an advantage over the
price index of goods and services (CPI). Deflator automatically reflects changes in consumption patterns or the introduction of new
goods and services. Such data are a moderate indicator for markets.
Durable Goods (Durable goods)
Bureau of Census, Fourth week of each month, in the chair. 8:30 EST, covers previous month data
Durable goods orders are a measure of new orders placed with domestic manufacturers for immediate and future delivery of durable
goods. Durable goods are defined as goods used over a long period of time (depreciation over three years). The increase in orders
for durable goods usually indicates a strengthening of economic activity and thus may lead to higher short-term interest rates, which
often support the currency at least in the short term.
Current Account (current account balance)
BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis); Quarterly, about six weeks after the end of the quarter
The difference between total exports of goods, services and flows and their import.Current account balance does not include
transactions of financial assets and liabilities. The level of current account balance is tracked as an indicator of the trend in foreign
trade, therefore, is considered a major factor in the market.
Index of leading indicators
Council; About 20 of every month, in the chair. 10:00 EST
An index used to predict the direction of movement of the economy in the coming months. The index consists of 10 economic
components, whose changes tend to predict changes in the overall economy. Components include:
average number of hours working week
the average number of initial applications for unemployment insurance
number of new orders for consumer goods and raw materials
speed delivery of new goods from suppliers to retailers
number of new orders for capital goods unrelated to defense
number of new permits for the construction of residential buildings
SP 500 stock index
money supply adjusted for inflation (rate of M2)
the spread between long-and short-term interest rates
consumer sentiment.
Based on review of the Index of leading indicators in the light of business cycles and general economic conditions, investors and
businesses can prepare for the expectations about the future and make more informed decisions. It has medium importance,
because its components are already known at the time of publication.
Monthly Balance Budget
Monthly report of the U.S. government (Treasury Department), showing a deficit or surplus in the monthly budget
The level of deficit / surplus affects the level of government bonds issued by U.S. and hence – their price. The report also reflects the
level of taxes levied by the government, which is an indicator of economic activity level. In this regard, the April report (fiscal month
of the annual accounts) is more important than reports from other months.
The PCE – Personal Consumption Expenditure (Personal consumption expenditure)
BEA (Bureau of Economic Analysis); last day of each month, in the chair. 8:30 EST, covers previous month data
PCE of price changes in consumer goods and services. PCE is a fairly predictable report, which usually has little effect on the
market. Core PCE (index excluding food and energy prices) estimates inflationary trend more precisely.
ECI – Employment Cost Index (indicator of employment cost changes)
Bureau of Labor and Statistics; last Thursday of April, July, November and January, in the chair. 8:30 EST, covers previous quarter
data
ECI Index tracks changes in employment costs including rates, social benefits and bonuses for employees at all levels in
companies. The survey covers more than 3 000 private sector companies and over 500 local governments, schools and other public
sector institutions. This indicator is not strictly followed, but it is among a group of selected indicators, which are so strong that it can
affect the markets, especially in periods of inflation. ECI concept rests on the assumption that, with the emphasis on wage inflation
is increasing. This is mainly due to the mechanism of salary increase before companies increase prices for consumers (inflation).
Beige Book
Federal Reserve Board, two Wednesdays before each FOMC meeting, 8 times a year, in the chair. 14:15 EST
“Beige book” is a commonly used term for the Fed report entitled “Summary of Federal Reserve notes about the current economic
situation.” The report is published just before the FOMC meeting on interest rates, and serves to inform members about changes in
the economy since the last meeting. The report is published eight times a year. The report “Beige Book” is not considered a major
factor in the market. Is a measure of the strength of the economy and not a commentary on the views of Fed members. Sometimes
it can affect the market if the results are a big jump compared to the expectations of analysts.
The trade balance
Department of Commerce; second week of each month, in the chair. 8:30 am EST, covers previous month data from
The largest component of the balance of payments of the country. Account balance shows the difference between the value of
goods and services exported and the value of goods and services imported by the country. If a country imports more than exports
account deficit occurs, and the opposite situation indicates a surplus of turnover. The index is considered an important factor
shaping the market.